I published an article on The New Leaf Journal about how the 2024-25 Miami Heat had the worst win-loss record (37-45) of any team to make the NBA Playoffs in the 16-team playoff era (beginning in 1983-84) with a positive net rating (N.A. Ferrell at NLJ, March 22, 2025). In short, the Heat actually outscored their opponents last season despite finishing with a sub-500 37-45 record (note the Heat definitely did not outscore its opponent in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs). On August 29, 2025, Tim Botemps of ESPN published an article listing five NBA teams that he believes could exceed expectations in the 2025-26 season. One of those five teams is the Miami Heat. I noted an interesting fact about last year’s Heat team:

The Heat were also 14-28 in clutch games last season, the third-worst winning percentage in the NBA.

This makes sense. “Clucth games” encompass games where “the socre is within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime…” (Brian Martin for NBA.com). The 2024-25 Heat were 14-28 in “clutch games” and 23-17 in all other games. All things considered, they do seem like a plausible improvement candidate if they can achieve coin filp results in coin flip games in the 2025-26 season.