The Nagoya Basho grand sumo tournament is about to begin. I watched the first three tournaments of the year (January, March, and May) and am excited for the fourth. I would not yet deem myself competent to predict the records of all the participants like Tim Edwards does on his always-interesting Sumo Stomp! blog, but I suppose I can take a stab at predicting the top of the bracket. Mr. Edwards is predicting that seven wrestlers will reach double-digit wins (note: out of 15 bouts). In the first three tournaments of the year, the double-digit winners were 8, 8, and 7, although note that May was unusually injury-filled at the top of the bracket. In the spirit of putting my picks on record, I will pick the eight wrestlers who I think will reach double-digit wins.
First, I think both Yokozuna, Y1e Hōshōryū and Y1w Ōnosato, will reach at least 10 wins. Hōshōryū won 10 and 11 in January and March respectively before exiting May on day one with a hamstring injury. The typically-dominant Ōnosato won 10 while hurt in January before missing most of March and all of May.
From the Ozeki rank, I will offer the very lukewarm take that O1e Kirishima, who was champion in March and lost in a playoff in May, will make it four-for-four in double digit win tournaments in 2026.
Skipping down to Komosubi, I will predict that rising star K1e Yoshinofuji notches his second consecutive 10-win performance.
From the maegashira ranks, I will pick M3w Hakunofuji (coming off an 11-4 showing at M10 in May), M7w Takayasu (coming off an injury-shortened May showing), M13w Takerufuji (coming up from Juryo after a lengthy stint caused by injury, I agree with Mr. Edwards’ pick here), and M16w Asakoryu (went 9-6 at M15 and M12 in the first two tournaments before exiting May due to injury at 3-4 as M7).
I suppose I have to pick a winner too. Hōshōryū’s first of two yusho came at the 2023 Nagoya Basho and he is “overdue” for his first win at the top Yokozuna rank, so I will make the fairly “conventional” pick.
The full rankings are available from The Japan Times. Note that K1e Wakatakagae, who won the May tournament, is out with what was apparently a serious health condition.
On July 11, I made my pre-Nagoya Basho predictions for the fourth grand sumo tournament of 2026. To be precise, I picked eight wrestlers to hit double digit wins. Now that the Nagoya Basho has been completed, let us see how I did…
First, let us look at the records of the eight wrestlers I predicted to reach 10 wins:
Alas, only three of my eight picks reached 10 wins, although I will note with some satisfaction that an additional three finished one short at 9-6. Onosato and Asakoryu started slow, but finished strong, to notch matching 9-6 records from opposite ends of the ranking scale. Meanwhile, Haukunofuji looked to be on pace for double-digit wins before a mid-basho slump. Hoshoryu started well before fading and withdrawing on day 14 due to injury while Yoshinofuji had a slightly disappointing debut at komosubi.
10 wrestlers ultimately reached 10 wins (more than the 8 I had in my predictions). The seven I missed:
I thought about picking Atamifuji but was thinking more along the lines of his matching his 9-6 from May. I unwisely shied away from the champion, Aonishki, after his struggles in March and missing the May tournament, but he was certainly superlative in this one. Kotoeiho and Fujiryoga were two lower-ranked stars from May, and they exceeded my prediction expectations in carrying their success over to their higher rankings. I was not thinking about Daiesho hitting 10 after a respectable streak of 7-8 finishes to start the year. Nishikifuji was not on my radar at all, and Shishi’s strong performance caught me by surprise. I will note one from the 9-6 club I had considered picking was Asanoyama (M10e), who was well on pace for double digits before a some competitive losses in the home stretch.
It was fun going on record with sumo picks for the first time, and I look forward to trying my hand in September (perhaps with an expanded selection).