Tag: predictions

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Before July’s Nagoya Basho (July grand sumo tournament), I predicted which wrestlers I thought would reach 10 wins. Now, one tournament wiser, I will predict the entire field for the September 2026 Aki Basho (running from September 13-27, 2026). To see predictions from more learned sumo observers, see Tim Edwards’ predictions at Sumo Stomp and the Fantasy Basho predictions. Note that I am assuming for purposes of my predictions that all wrestlers who are slated to compete on day one will compete all 15 days.

  • 12-3: O1e Kirishima
  • 11-4: Y1e Onosato
  • 10-5: O2e Aonishki, M6w Ichiyamamoto, M8e Takerufuji, M8w Hiradoumi, M16e Toshinofuji
  • 9-6: S1e Atamifuji, M10e Oho, M11w Shodai, M12w Asahakuryu, M15e Asasuiryu
  • 8-7: O1w Kotozakura, K1e Hakunofuji, M1w Kotoeiho, M2e Takayasu, M2w Yoshinofuji, M4w Fujiryoga, M13e Asakoryu
  • 7-8: K1w Daieisho, M1e Kotoshoho, M4e Takanosho, M7e Fujiseiun, M13w Abi
  • 6-9: S1w Fujinokawa, M3e Gonoyama, M6e Asanoyama, M9e Ura, M9w Shishi, M10w Kinbozan, M11e Wakamotoharu, M14e Tobizaru, M15w Tokihayate
  • 5-10: M3w Churanoumi, M5e Roga, M5w Oshoma, M7w Nishikifuji, M14w Chiyoshoma, M17e Shonannoumi

I made my picks conservatively, generally avoiding picking extreme records for this tournament. To be sure, I am sure there will be some 3-12/4-13 records on the low-end and I would not be surprised to see one of the wrestlers in my 10+ win group run up a 13-2 record (most likely Kirishima, Onosato, or Aonishki, health permitting on the latter two). Based on other picks I have seen, I will mark M6w Ichiyamamoto and M8w Hiradoumi as my “surprise” picks for this basho.

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Replied to Nagoya Basho Predictions by Nicholas A. FerrellNicholas A. Ferrell (The Emu Café Social)
In the spirit of putting my picks on record, I will pick the eight wrestlers who I think will reach double-digit wins [in the Nagoya Basho].

On July 11, I made my pre-Nagoya Basho predictions for the fourth grand sumo tournament of 2026. To be precise, I picked eight wrestlers to hit double digit wins. Now that the Nagoya Basho has been completed, let us see how I did…

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Replied to 2026 Nagoya basho predictions! The Isegahama takeover begins by Tim Edwards (Sumo Stomp!)
My prediction for the 2026 Nagoya basho is a play-off between Hōshōryū and Atamifuji. If that comes to fruition, I think it’s a toss up between those two who takes it. Hōshōryū has more talent, in my opinion, but Atamifuji’s size causes him problems.

The Nagoya Basho grand sumo tournament is about to begin. I watched the first three tournaments of the year (January, March, and May) and am excited for the fourth. I would not yet deem myself competent to predict the records of all the participants like Tim Edwards does on his always-interesting Sumo Stomp! blog, but I suppose I can take a stab at predicting the top of the bracket. Mr. Edwards is predicting that seven wrestlers will reach double-digit wins (note: out of 15 bouts). In the first three tournaments of the year, the double-digit winners were 8, 8, and 7, although note that May was unusually injury-filled at the top of the bracket. In the spirit of putting my picks on record, I will pick the eight wrestlers who I think will reach double-digit wins.

First, I think both Yokozuna, Y1e Hōshōryū and Y1w Ōnosato, will reach at least 10 wins. Hōshōryū won 10 and 11 in January and March respectively before exiting May on day one with a hamstring injury. The typically-dominant Ōnosato won 10 while hurt in January before missing most of March and all of May.

From the Ozeki rank, I will offer the very lukewarm take that O1e Kirishima, who was champion in March and lost in a playoff in May, will make it four-for-four in double digit win tournaments in 2026.

Skipping down to Komosubi, I will predict that rising star K1e Yoshinofuji notches his second consecutive 10-win performance.

From the maegashira ranks, I will pick M3w Hakunofuji (coming off an 11-4 showing at M10 in May), M7w Takayasu (coming off an injury-shortened May showing), M13w Takerufuji (coming up from Juryo after a lengthy stint caused by injury, I agree with Mr. Edwards’ pick here), and M16w Asakoryu (went 9-6 at M15 and M12 in the first two tournaments before exiting May due to injury at 3-4 as M7).

I suppose I have to pick a winner too. Hōshōryū’s first of two yusho came at the 2023 Nagoya Basho and he is “overdue” for his first win at the top Yokozuna rank, so I will make the fairly “conventional” pick.

The full rankings are available from The Japan Times. Note that K1e Wakatakagae, who won the May tournament, is out with what was apparently a serious health condition.